CRESCO INTELLIGENCE · 12 OCTOBER 2026
On October 10 fifteen qualified investors sat with us at the Fairmont Grand Del Mar. Every one of them asked a version of the same question. We answered with the Dubai Land Department register in the room. This is the written version, including the numbers that hurt.
We are a Dubai brokerage. You would expect us to say the market is fine. It is not fine, and we would rather you hear that from us than find it on your own after the event. What follows is the seven questions as they were asked, answered with sources you can check. Where we do not know, we say so.
What we told the room, in five lines.
Yes, the market dropped. Yes, it was bad. It has stopped falling and the last six weeks are flat. We expect a correction for the next two to three years, not a recovery. We do not promise 2030. We show you what is dated for it and let you decide.
Question one
The war is real and it is not over. Hostilities began on February 28, 2026 with United States and Israeli strikes on Iran. Iran answered across the Gulf. In the first days it targeted Abu Dhabi. On May 17 a drone struck an external generator at the Barakah nuclear plant, outside the inner perimeter, and all four reactors kept operating; the UAE Ministry of Defence attributed the launch to Iraqi territory. UAE figures put the cost at 12 civilians killed and 246 injured since February. Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in March, a memorandum reopened it on June 17, the ceasefire collapsed on July 8 and the strait remains a live crisis. On October 11 an attack on Riyadh airport killed one person.
We have not found a reported strike on Dubai. We will update this line the day that changes.
Here is the distinction that matters for your money. The war has not touched ownership. Freehold title registered at the Dubai Land Department is yours whatever happens to the headlines, in the same way a deed in San Diego County is yours. What the war has touched is price and the number of buyers, and both are in the next answer. Nobody can tell you the war will not escalate. Anyone who does is guessing, and you should treat a broker who guesses on this as a broker who guesses on everything.
Question two
It fell hard and then it stopped. S&P Global Ratings, citing Dubai Land Department data, puts total sales at an average of 12,644 a month from March to September against 17,198 a month in January and February. That is 26% fewer sales a month. Cavendish Maxwell's third quarter report, published October 7, counts 34,000 residential sales worth AED 72.6 billion, 38% fewer by number and 47% lower by value than the third quarter of 2025. Over the first nine months of 2026 the count is 112,580 and the value AED 292 billion, 23% and 27% below 2025. Off plan was 65% of value and 72% of purchases.
Prices followed. S&P, citing industry reports, has prices 5% to 15% below the end of 2025. Emaar's chairman Mohamed Alabbar has described the adjustment as 5% to 10%. S&P expects a gradual correction from here, with apartments falling faster than villas.
Now our own count, from the register, on the screen we use on every page: sales, residential, apartments, at or above AED 500 a square foot.
| Period | Apartment sales | Value |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 9,956 | Full month report on this site; median two bedroom $557,434 |
| September 2026 | 9,608 | AED 16.96 billion |
| Week of August 31 | 2,132 | AED 3.65 billion |
| Week of September 7 | 2,475 | AED 3.91 billion |
| Week of September 14 | 2,049 | AED 3.80 billion |
| Week of September 21 | 2,032 | AED 3.87 billion |
| Week of September 28 | 2,122 | AED 3.82 billion |
| Week of October 5 | 2,110 | AED 3.75 billion |
September was 3.5% below August. Six consecutive weeks between 2,030 and 2,475 apartment sales is a market that has stopped falling and gone flat. It is not a market that is picking up, and we will not describe it as one. If the November register shows a rise we will say so on this page with the number.
Question three
Dubai prices fell by more than half after the 2008 peak. That number is worth remembering because it is the reason the rules changed. Three things exist now that did not exist then.
First, the deposit. Since October 28, 2013 the UAE Central Bank has capped mortgages. For a first home under AED 5 million a foreign buyer could borrow at most 75% of the price, raised to 80% in 2020, 65% above AED 5 million, 60% on a second property, and every off plan purchase is capped at 50% regardless of who the buyer is. In 2008 buyers were flipping units on deposits of a few percent. That buyer cannot exist today.
Second, the cost of flipping. On October 6, 2013 the Dubai Land Department doubled the transfer fee from 2% to 4%. A quick resale costs 4% on the way in and the buyer pays 4% again, which removes most of the margin that drove 2008.
Third, escrow. Since Dubai Law 8 of 2007 every dirham paid on an off plan unit goes into a project escrow account released against construction progress. The unfinished towers of 2009 were funded by buyer deposits that developers had already spent. That is now illegal.
Can prices fall further? Yes. The same S&P note expects a gradual correction with apartments ahead of villas, and we tell clients to plan for two to three years of it. That is a correction. It is not 2008, because the leverage that made 2008 is not in the system.
Question four
The supply is real and it is the main reason apartment prices are soft. ValuStrat counted more than 220,000 residential units under construction with deliveries scheduled through 2029, and a forecast of 131,234 completions in 2026 alone, 81% of them apartments. Take that forecast seriously as a direction and not as a number. In 2025 Dubai actually delivered about 36,000 units, 26,810 apartments and 9,382 villas, which was 59% of what had been forecast at the start of that year. Delays are the rule in Dubai construction, and the war has made them longer, not shorter.
On the other side of the ledger, Dubai's population was 3.863 million in 2024 and passed 4 million on August 28, 2025 according to the Dubai Statistics Centre. The Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan is built for 5.8 million. Whether the people keep coming at that rate through a war is one of the things nobody knows, and it is on our list below.
Our read: expect apartment prices to stay under pressure while this delivers, expect villas to hold better because almost none of the pipeline is villas, and expect the 2026 forecast to miss by a wide margin as 2025 did.
Question five
Separate two risks that got mixed together in the room. The first is physical risk to the asset. On the evidence above, Dubai property has not been physically damaged by this war. The second is market risk, and that one has already happened. Prices are 5% to 15% lower and buyers are 26% fewer precisely because of the uncertainty you are describing. You are not being asked to ignore the uncertainty. You are being offered a price that already contains it.
That cuts both ways and we will not pretend otherwise. If the war widens, the discount widens. If it ends, the discount closes and you will not be offered it again. The honest position is that you are paid to carry the uncertainty, and only you can decide whether the payment is enough.
Question six
We do not give investment advice and this is not it. We give you the arithmetic. The median registered two bedroom apartment in August was $557,434. A 10% lower entry on that unit is about $55,700 in your pocket. A 15% lower entry is about $83,600. Waiting for certainty means waiting for the day everybody else sees it too, and on that day the discount is gone.
Against that, you are taking two to three years of possible further correction. The buyers this works for are the ones who buy with cash or inside the Central Bank caps, hold for five years or more, and earn the rent while they wait. The buyers it does not work for are the ones who need to sell in 2027. If that is you, we will tell you not to buy, and we have.
Two more facts for the arithmetic. Dubai charges no annual property tax and no capital gains tax on a sale. A 4% transfer fee applies at purchase. United States citizens remain liable to the IRS on worldwide income and should take their own tax advice.
Question seven
We do not forecast 2030 and you should distrust anyone who does. What we can do is list what is dated for 2030 and who signed it.
| What | When | Scale | Who |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Maktoum International Airport, new passenger terminal | First phase within 10 years of April 2024 | AED 128 billion, about $35 billion. First phase 150 million passengers a year, 260 million at full build. Five runways, 400 gates. A new city around it planned for one million residents | Government of Dubai |
| Dubai Metro Blue Line | September 9, 2029 | 30 km, 14 stations, AED 20.5 billion, 200,000 daily riders projected by 2030, serving Dubai Creek Harbour, Festival City, Silicon Oasis, International City, Mirdif | Roads and Transport Authority |
| Wynn Al Marjan Island, the UAE's first casino resort | September 2027 | $5.7 billion budget after a $600 million increase, about half attributed by Wynn to the regional conflict | Wynn Resorts, Ras Al Khaimah |
| Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan | 2040 | Planned for 5.8 million residents against 4 million today | Government of Dubai |
Those are the facts. Whether they turn into appreciation depends on three things nobody controls: how much of the supply above actually lands, whether the war ends or widens, and what the dollar does, because the dirham is pegged to it at 3.6725 and your Dubai asset is a dollar asset. We would rather you weigh those than take our word for a year.
Whether the war escalates or ends. Whether population growth holds through it. How much of the 2026 and 2027 supply forecast actually delivers. Where prices bottom. Anyone who tells you they know these four things is selling, not advising.
That the market dropped and that it was bad. That it has stopped falling. That they should plan for a correction over two to three years and buy only if they can hold through it. That we will not promise them 2030, we will show them what is dated for it. That the register is public and they should check everything we said. Several of them did, in the room, on their phones. That is the kind of buyer we want.
The same session runs in San Francisco on October 17 at The St. Regis and in Beverly Hills on October 24 at the Beverly Wilshire. Register here, or read first: Dubai vs the USA, is it safe, how much money you need to buy in Dubai, and why Wynn moved its opening to September 2027.
We have not found a reported strike on Dubai. Abu Dhabi was targeted in the first days of the war and a drone hit an external generator at the Barakah plant on May 17, 2026. UAE figures put the national toll at 12 civilians killed and 246 injured. We update this answer if that changes.
S&P Global Ratings puts prices 5% to 15% below the end of 2025 as of September 2026. Emaar's chairman has described the adjustment as 5% to 10%. Sales were 38% fewer in the third quarter than a year earlier according to Cavendish Maxwell.
Not on the register as of October 12, 2026. September apartment sales were 3.5% below August and weekly sales have been flat for six weeks. The market has stabilised. It has not started rising.
Prices fell more than 50% after 2008. Since 2013 mortgages are capped at 75% for a first home and 50% for off plan, the transfer fee is 4%, and off plan money sits in escrow under Law 8 of 2007. A further correction is possible and expected. The leverage that made 2008 is no longer in the system.
ValuStrat counts more than 220,000 units under construction through 2029 and forecast 131,234 completions in 2026. In 2025 about 36,000 units were delivered, 59% of the forecast. Expect the 2026 figure to miss by a similar margin.
Yes. Prices can fall further for two to three years. The case for buying now is the price, not certainty. Buy only what you can hold for five years or more.
War facts: Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war, and GlobalSecurity.org Iran war updates, accessed October 12, 2026; CNBC and The Jerusalem Post, October 11 and 12, 2026 for the Riyadh airport attack. Market figures: The National, October 7, 2026, reporting Cavendish Maxwell's Q3 2026 Dubai residential report and S&P Global Ratings. Our own figures: Dubai Land Department transactions register, exported October 12, 2026, sales group, residential usage, unit property type, transactions at or above AED 500 per square foot, square feet at 10.7639 per square metre, dollars at 3.6725. 2008 and 2013 rules: Oxford Business Group, The Report: Dubai 2014. Supply: ValuStrat, February 18, 2026. Population: Dubai Statistics Centre via Khaleej Times, August 28, 2025. Airport: CNBC, April 30, 2024. Blue Line: Gulf News, May 28, 2025. Wynn: Wynn Resorts, reported on this site. Figures are reproduced as published. Nothing on this page is investment, legal or tax advice.
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Price is only part of what you need in the bank. We worked out the full cash requirement, including the Land Department transfer fee, the service partner fee and the Central Bank deposit caps, in how much money you need to buy property in Dubai.