The US Housing Market in November 2026: What It Means for Gulf Buyers.

Prices: rising, but slower than inflation

The National Association of REALTORS reported a median existing sale price of $417,500 in September 2026, up 1.3% from $412,300 a year earlier. Single family properties had a median of $422,700 and condos and co ops $363,700.

The S&P Cotality Case Shiller national index rose 2.1% in the year to August. Inflation was 3.4% over the same period, so in real terms US prices fell. Asking prices are softer still: Realtor.com put the October median list price at $415,000, down 2.2% on a year earlier.

Mortgage rates: above 7%

Freddie Mac put the average 30 year fixed rate at 7.18% on 5 November 2026, after 7.24% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.22%. The 15 year fixed averaged 6.57%.

NAR’s chief economist said in October that rising rates mean fewer buyers can qualify. That is the main reason sales are flat.

Supply: more choice, more price cuts

New listings fell 7.5% in October, so sellers are not flooding the market. Listings are piling up because they take longer to sell, not because more owners want out. Realtor.com still puts active inventory about 6.6% below typical levels before the pandemic.

Where prices are rising and falling

City by city, the Case Shiller index shows the split. In the year to August, Chicago rose 6.70%, New York 6.19% and Miami 4.24%. San Francisco rose 3.37%, San Diego 2.29% and Los Angeles 1.36%. Tampa fell 0.39%, Dallas 0.79% and Seattle 1.96%.

For the state detail, see our Q3 2026 reports on California, New York and Florida.

Foreign buyers are fewer, and mostly pay cash

NAR counted 67,100 US purchases by foreign buyers from April 2025 to March 2026, worth $45.3 billion. That was down 14% by number and the second lowest level since NAR started tracking in 2009. The median foreign buyer paid $465,000, and 48% paid all cash, against 28% of all existing buyers.

Florida took 20% of foreign purchases, California 19% and Texas 12%. Buyers living outside the US made 44% of foreign purchases.

What this means for a Gulf buyer

1. Paying cash is the big advantage right now. At the 7.18% average rate, a 30 year loan of $334,000 (80% of the national median) costs about $2,263 a month in principal and interest. At last year’s 6.22% it would have cost about $2,050, so roughly $2,550 more a year today. A cash buyer avoids that cost entirely and competes with fewer financed buyers. Freddie Mac’s survey covers loans to US borrowers; lenders price foreign national loans separately, so ask for a written quote.

2. You have more room to negotiate. With 20.5% of listings already cut, contract signings down 17% and sold properties taking 33 days, sellers have less leverage than a year ago. Ask what similar properties actually sold for in the last 90 days, not what they are listed at.

3. No exchange rate risk on the dirham. The UAE dirham is pegged at AED 3.6725 per US dollar, so the national median of $417,500 is about AED 1.53 million today and will convert at the same rate when you sell. Your return depends on the property, not on currency moves.

4. Pick the market, not the country. Real prices fell nationally, but New York, Chicago and Miami are still rising faster than inflation, while Tampa, Dallas and Seattle are falling. The same budget buys very different outcomes depending on the city.

5. Plan the exit before you buy. When a foreign owner sells, the buyer generally withholds 15% of the sale price under FIRPTA and sends it to the IRS. It is a withholding, not the final tax, but it ties up cash until your US return is filed. Property tax and insurance vary widely by state; read our guide on US real estate taxes for GCC investors before you shortlist.

The honest limits. Rates above 7% can rise again. National figures hide large local differences. Florida condos in particular have much more supply than single family properties, as our Florida report shows. None of this is a reason to buy or not to buy; it is the starting point for a local check.

Frequently asked questions

What is the median price of an existing US property right now?

The National Association of REALTORS reported a median existing sale price of $417,500 in September 2026, up 1.3% on a year earlier. Single family properties had a median of $422,700 and condos and co ops $363,700.

What are US mortgage rates in November 2026?

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30 year fixed rate at 7.18% on 5 November 2026, down from 7.24% the week before but up from 6.22% a year earlier. Loans for foreign nationals are priced separately by each lender.

Is it a good time for a Gulf buyer to buy US property?

The data shows more listings, more price cuts and prices rising slower than inflation, which gives a cash buyer more room to negotiate. Rates above 7% make borrowing expensive. Whether it suits you depends on the city, the property and your plan to exit, so check local data before you commit.

Sources: NAR, existing sales September 2026 (13 Oct 2026); Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 5 Nov 2026; Realtor.com, October 2026 housing report; S&P Cotality Case Shiller, August 2026 (27 Oct 2026); NAR, International Transactions 2026; IRS, FIRPTA withholding. Monthly payment computed by Cresco from the Freddie Mac rate, principal and interest only, before taxes and insurance. AED conversion at the fixed peg of 3.6725.